The current population growth is only in the United States | Muhammad Tanveer Iqbal | Thecapitaldebates

In times of crisis, the demand for future forecasts seems to increase rapidly. Now, such long-term forecasts are being made in various fields. With reference to them, I will dare to try the prediction of the world in 2050-mainly from the viewpoint of power. First is the trend of population and GDP. India, China, Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan and Brazil will have a population of G7

The current population growth is only in the United States | Muhammad Tanveer Iqbal | Thecapitaldebates
The current population growth is only in the United States | Muhammad Tanveer Iqbal | Thecapitaldebates
Of these, China will continue the demographic dividend period until 2034, after which it will enter the population onus period. It will experience a rapid ageing and depopulation that surpasses that of Japan today. On the other hand, Indonesia will maintain the demographic dividend period until 2044 and India until 2060. Under these circumstances, the population of the United States will continue to increase.  The current G7 will only increase the population in the United States. (Editor's note: "Demographic dividend" is a state in which the ratio of the working-age (15-64 years old) population to the total population is increasing, and "Population Onus" is the opposite)

Next, the economic scale is in the order of China, the United States, India, Indonesia, Japan, Germany, and Brazil. (Economist Intelligence Unit, Long-term Macroeconomic Forecast, 2015)

Thus, the world enters the era of the Three Kingdoms of China, India, and the United States. However, strategically and militarily, the United States will still have an advantage over China and India.  However, he United States may transform from a "predictable stable force" to an "uncertain variable" to a "disruptor" for the world. The biggest risk in the United States is domestic affairs.

That is the same in China. China in the 2030s will move into an "adjustment" phase for out-of-line hegemony and tyranny inside the Xi Jinping line. Debt and population decline are holding back growth. There is a possibility that the Chinese elite will not stop escaping overseas. The American alliance system is more selective and focused.

By then, the American alliance system can be seen as more selective and focused.  Population political economist Nicholas Ebasstat says that population growth will also affect the alliance's whereabouts. In that case, the United States may be more inclined to partner with India, creating a quasi-alliance between the United States and India against China.

In both China and India, the number of foreign nationals will increase dramatically. The Malacca Strait dilemma in China and the Strait of Hormuz dilemma in India cannot be easily overcome. Due to their overseas presence and weak energy supply, both countries are likely to strengthen their aggressive and even hegemonic stance. China-India relations change from inland conflicts across the Himalayas to ocean tensions over the Indo-Pacific.

By 2050, the US-China India will be sitting on the throne of the world's nuclear clubs.  However, its monopoly must have been diluted by nuclear proliferation. North Korea has become a de facto nuclear weapon nation. After the advent of the Trump administration, the US-Iran nuclear deal has returned to the beginning. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also interested in possessing nuclear weapons.  China is modernising its nuclear force by deploying a theatre ballistic missile DF that can be equipped with nuclear weapons.  Russia has deployed intermediate-range cruise missiles in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) (Russia stopped participating in the treaty in March 2019 and expired in August).

The world has begun to move again from the "forgetting of nuclear weapons" to the "restoration of nuclear weapons" that occurred in anticipation of the abolition of nuclear weapons.  The idea that "nuclear weapons are not effective as a deterrent unless they are actually used" is re-emerged.  Under such circumstances, the whereabouts of Japan's nuclear possession will be of great interest to the world.  ("End of" Nuclear Oblivion "Age of Restoration of Nuclear Weapons" edited by Nobumasa Akiyama and Sugio Takahashi)

Without waiting for 2050, the world's military powers will be crowded in Asia. In terms of military spending, India outperformed Japan and Russia in 2015 and 2017, respectively. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) overtook South Korea in 2019. Overtake Japan in 2022.  In 2025, South Korea will overtake Japan.  (IMF, World Economic Outlook Databases 2019) Black Swan is the Climate Change and the Fourth Industrial Revolution Of the 2050 scenarios, the most likely occurrences of the unexpected mutational Black Swan phenomenon are climate change and the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Arctic ice is almost melted by 2050. The Arctic Ocean will be the main shipping route in the world. This is a treasure trove of oil, gas and rare minerals. Russia, Canada, the United States, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, which are coastal countries of the Arctic,mans China, which is not a coastal country but incorporates the Arctic into "One Belt, One Road," and aims to become a "great country near the Arctic" (President Xi Jinping), are fighting for leadership. Unfold.  Russia and Canada will be the largest breadbaskets in the world.

The ice on the Tibetan Plateau also melts, threatening the ecosystems of large rivers in Asia that originate here. In 2035, half of the world's population will face water shortages due to drought and other factors. Especially China is serious. China could carry out large-scale "Geo-engineering" such as changing the flow of these rivers or spraying special agents into the atmosphere to lower the temperature in China's territory, leading to conflicts with neighbouring countries. There is also. 

Under the Fourth Industrial Revolution, humans, societies, and nations will not be able to keep up with speed in terms of cognition, psychology, and governance. There will be a big reaction to the ideology that Silicon Valley praises accelerated laissez-faire, the "dog year", that is, shortening time is good and should not be regulated.

In the obsession that you have to "look" and decide things, "second glance" reflexes, wisdom and governance are important. Tolerance and diversity are important to listen to objections and second opinions. Connectivity, information, and brain are the keys to power. In a chain of diffusely reflexive "disturbance," a country that can maintain the diversity and openness of middle-way politics and society gains soft power.

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